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| Morocco's Legislative Elections |
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(09/17/2007)
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(Memos)
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Middle East Memo: Morocco's Legislative Elections
September 17, 2006
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On September 7, 2007 the people of Morocco elected members of the House of Representatives (HR,) in one of the few free elections in the Arab world. Thirty-three Moroccan parties competed for 295 district seats, as well as another thirty seats allocated to a national list of women- an initiative introduced in the 2002 elections to increase women’s representation in parliament. Voter turnout for the election was thirty-seven percent, significantly lower than the fifty-two percent turnout in the 2002 elections. The elections did not result in any drastic changes in the composition of the House. However, contrary to most expectations, the main Islamist Justice and Development Party did not pick up enough seats to become the leading party of Morocco (see table 1.1).
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Background
Reform, Structure, and Power Sharing in Morocco’s Elections
The 2007 legislative elections are the third since the country engaged in a series of democratic reforms beginning in 1997 that ensure democratic representation, transparency and accountability.
Power in Morocco is shared between the Monarch, who designates a Prime Minister and controls security and foreign affairs, and political parties that are elected to parliament and form a cabinet based on their representation in parliament.
The diverse nature of Moroccan politics and electoral law makes it difficult for any one party to achieve an absolute majority. The Kingdom has 33 political parties and several ethnic and linguistic groups. The proportional party system- with short lists of three or four names per party in each district- does not contribute to producing a majority in an already fragmented political landscape. Consequently, parties must collaborate in blocs or alliances in order to form a governing “majority”. As a result, the highest priority of political parties is not to win a majority of seats, but to be the largest party in parliament. As such, the largest party carries more weight once alliances are formed between parties.
Before the 2007 elections, the Moroccan “cabinet” consisted of a ruling government coalition of five mainly centrist political parties: (1) the Socialist Union for Popular Forces (USFP), (2) the Istiqlal (IP), (3) the Party of Progress and Socialism (PPS), (4) the Popular Movement (PM), and (5) the National Rally for Independents (NRI). The USFP and PPS are center-left parties, while the others are generally considered to be center right.
Analysis
Power Shifts between Ruling Parties
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The electoral results led to changes mostly between the parties in the ruling coalition, rather than between the ruling coalition and the opposition.
- The main leftist party, the USFP which was formerly the largest party in parliament, lost twelve seats, about a quarter of its representation in the House of Representatives and fell to fifth place.
- The PPS failed elect most of its leadership, including a cabinet minister.
- The Istiqlal [Independence] Party- the oldest Moroccan party with centrist and nationalist roots- won the largest number of seats, moving up from second to first place.
- The economically-liberal and centrist PM gained fourteen seats, becoming Morocco’s third largest party, with potential to play a prominent role in the Parliament if it joins the ruling government coalition.
The election outcomes will thus change the balance of power within the governing coalition. Before the elections, party leaders within the existing coalition stated that they would maintain their coalition if they each garnered enough seats.
The King met with leaders of the six parties that gained more than twenty seats to solicit their input before he selects a Prime Minister. It is uncertain whether the next Prime Minister will be from the leading Istiqlal party, or if he will remain a technocrat unaffiliated with any particular party, like the current Prime Minister.
Islamist Movements
In 2002, the JDP- the main Islamist party- ran a limited number of candidates and won forty-two seats, making it the third largest party in the House. In the 2007 elections, many observers of Moroccan politics expected the JDP to remain the largest party in parliament. This expectation was based not only on the assumption that the JDP’s constituency was growing, but on the belief that free elections in Arab and Muslim countries will tend to bring Islamists to office based on their perceived success in building grassroots support.
The results of the Moroccan elections suggest that free elections do not necessarily lead to Islamist wins, if other democratic institutions such as freedom of the press and political party laws allow for a real competition of ideas. The political environment in Morocco is diverse and rich compared to other Arab countries, and so far non-Islamist parties have succeeded in holding their own against Islamist parties in free elections.
After the elections, the JDP accused some parties of illegal practices during the campaign, suggesting that their poor showing does not reflect their true popularity. International observers and courts will determine if their accusations are true or false, but it is worth noting that at the eve of the elections JDP officials expressed confidence in their performance and did not raise the issue of potential electoral fraud.
It remains unclear if the JDP will participate in a government coalition, or if it will assume the position of the largest opposition party.
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1.1 September 7 Legislative Elections Results
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Party
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Seats Won
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Istiqlal Party (IP)
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52
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Justice and Development Party (JDP)
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46
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Popular Movement
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41
|
|
National Rally for Independents
|
39
|
|
Socialist Union for Popular Forces (USFP)
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38
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Constitutional Union
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27
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|
Party of Progress and Socialism (PPS)
|
17
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|
Front of Democratic Forces
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9
|
|
Democratic and Social Movement
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9
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|
Union PND-Al-Ahd and parties forming the Union
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14
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|
Union PADS-CNI-PSU and parties forming the Union:
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6
|
|
Labor Party
|
5
|
|
Environment and Development Party
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5
|
|
Renewal Party
|
4
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|
Socialist party
|
2
|
|
Moroccan Union for Democracy
|
2
|
|
Citizens Forces
|
1
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|
Citizenship and Development Initiative
|
1
|
|
Renewal and Virtue Party
|
1
|
|
Independents
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5
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Conclusion
The experience to date of Morocco offers cautious optimism that free and fair elections in a Muslim country do not necessarily lead to an Islamist government when they take place in an environment where political parties have the freedom to compete fully in the competition of ideas. So far, the electoral process in Morocco has provided room for political change, and the Islamist parties that take part in the political process have accepted its diversity as a norm.
Nonetheless, the situation in Morocco remains challenging, as the low turnout in the elections illuminates the pervading apathy to politics in the country. Furthermore, governing coalitions of ruling parties are harder to hold accountable. The challenge for the next Moroccan government is not only to produce economic growth and development in the country, but to continue to engage the population in the political process.
Khairi Abaza is a senior fellow at the Center for Liberty in the Middle East.
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|
,
(2007/09/17)
|
Topics:
(
,
)
Countries:
(
,
)
(Memos)
|
Middle East Memo: Morocco's Legislative Elections
September 17, 2006
|
On September 7, 2007 the people of Morocco elected members of the House of Representatives (HR,) in one of the few free elections in the Arab world. Thirty-three Moroccan parties competed for 295 district seats, as well as another thirty seats allocated to a national list of women- an initiative introduced in the 2002 elections to increase women’s representation in parliament. Voter turnout for the election was thirty-seven percent, significantly lower than the fifty-two percent turnout in the 2002 elections. The elections did not result in any drastic changes in the composition of the House. However, contrary to most expectations, the main Islamist Justice and Development Party did not pick up enough seats to become the leading party of Morocco (see table 1.1).
|
Background
Reform, Structure, and Power Sharing in Morocco’s Elections
The 2007 legislative elections are the third since the country engaged in a series of democratic reforms beginning in 1997 that ensure democratic representation, transparency and accountability.
Power in Morocco is shared between the Monarch, who designates a Prime Minister and controls security and foreign affairs, and political parties that are elected to parliament and form a cabinet based on their representation in parliament.
The diverse nature of Moroccan politics and electoral law makes it difficult for any one party to achieve an absolute majority. The Kingdom has 33 political parties and several ethnic and linguistic groups. The proportional party system- with short lists of three or four names per party in each district- does not contribute to producing a majority in an already fragmented political landscape. Consequently, parties must collaborate in blocs or alliances in order to form a governing “majority”. As a result, the highest priority of political parties is not to win a majority of seats, but to be the largest party in parliament. As such, the largest party carries more weight once alliances are formed between parties.
Before the 2007 elections, the Moroccan “cabinet” consisted of a ruling government coalition of five mainly centrist political parties: (1) the Socialist Union for Popular Forces (USFP), (2) the Istiqlal (IP), (3) the Party of Progress and Socialism (PPS), (4) the Popular Movement (PM), and (5) the National Rally for Independents (NRI). The USFP and PPS are center-left parties, while the others are generally considered to be center right.
Analysis
Power Shifts between Ruling Parties
|
The electoral results led to changes mostly between the parties in the ruling coalition, rather than between the ruling coalition and the opposition.
- The main leftist party, the USFP which was formerly the largest party in parliament, lost twelve seats, about a quarter of its representation in the House of Representatives and fell to fifth place.
- The PPS failed elect most of its leadership, including a cabinet minister.
- The Istiqlal [Independence] Party- the oldest Moroccan party with centrist and nationalist roots- won the largest number of seats, moving up from second to first place.
- The economically-liberal and centrist PM gained fourteen seats, becoming Morocco’s third largest party, with potential to play a prominent role in the Parliament if it joins the ruling government coalition.
The election outcomes will thus change the balance of power within the governing coalition. Before the elections, party leaders within the existing coalition stated that they would maintain their coalition if they each garnered enough seats.
The King met with leaders of the six parties that gained more than twenty seats to solicit their input before he selects a Prime Minister. It is uncertain whether the next Prime Minister will be from the leading Istiqlal party, or if he will remain a technocrat unaffiliated with any particular party, like the current Prime Minister.
Islamist Movements
In 2002, the JDP- the main Islamist party- ran a limited number of candidates and won forty-two seats, making it the third largest party in the House. In the 2007 elections, many observers of Moroccan politics expected the JDP to remain the largest party in parliament. This expectation was based not only on the assumption that the JDP’s constituency was growing, but on the belief that free elections in Arab and Muslim countries will tend to bring Islamists to office based on their perceived success in building grassroots support.
The results of the Moroccan elections suggest that free elections do not necessarily lead to Islamist wins, if other democratic institutions such as freedom of the press and political party laws allow for a real competition of ideas. The political environment in Morocco is diverse and rich compared to other Arab countries, and so far non-Islamist parties have succeeded in holding their own against Islamist parties in free elections.
After the elections, the JDP accused some parties of illegal practices during the campaign, suggesting that their poor showing does not reflect their true popularity. International observers and courts will determine if their accusations are true or false, but it is worth noting that at the eve of the elections JDP officials expressed confidence in their performance and did not raise the issue of potential electoral fraud.
It remains unclear if the JDP will participate in a government coalition, or if it will assume the position of the largest opposition party.
|
|
1.1 September 7 Legislative Elections Results
|
|
Party
|
Seats Won
|
|
Istiqlal Party (IP)
|
52
|
|
Justice and Development Party (JDP)
|
46
|
|
Popular Movement
|
41
|
|
National Rally for Independents
|
39
|
|
Socialist Union for Popular Forces (USFP)
|
38
|
|
Constitutional Union
|
27
|
|
Party of Progress and Socialism (PPS)
|
17
|
|
Front of Democratic Forces
|
9
|
|
Democratic and Social Movement
|
9
|
|
Union PND-Al-Ahd and parties forming the Union
|
14
|
|
Union PADS-CNI-PSU and parties forming the Union:
|
6
|
|
Labor Party
|
5
|
|
Environment and Development Party
|
5
|
|
Renewal Party
|
4
|
|
Socialist party
|
2
|
|
Moroccan Union for Democracy
|
2
|
|
Citizens Forces
|
1
|
|
Citizenship and Development Initiative
|
1
|
|
Renewal and Virtue Party
|
1
|
|
Independents
|
5
|
|
Conclusion
The experience to date of Morocco offers cautious optimism that free and fair elections in a Muslim country do not necessarily lead to an Islamist government when they take place in an environment where political parties have the freedom to compete fully in the competition of ideas. So far, the electoral process in Morocco has provided room for political change, and the Islamist parties that take part in the political process have accepted its diversity as a norm.
Nonetheless, the situation in Morocco remains challenging, as the low turnout in the elections illuminates the pervading apathy to politics in the country. Furthermore, governing coalitions of ruling parties are harder to hold accountable. The challenge for the next Moroccan government is not only to produce economic growth and development in the country, but to continue to engage the population in the political process.
Khairi Abaza is a senior fellow at the Center for Liberty in the Middle East.
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