The attack, says Tony Badran, may have been a warning to Gemayel. "It may be that the Syrians thought Gemayel was going to Washington to campaign to replace Lahoud as president, and Damascus showed they would literally kill to stop it," says Badran. "It wouldn't be the first time. Remember that in 2004 Asad reportedly threatened Hariri that 'only he appoints the Lebanese president.' If not, as he told Hariri, 'he would break Lebanon over his head."